Shocking Projections of UK Muslim Population

The graph below shows future UK Muslim population projections under three different sets of assumptions, and a possible future UK jihadist population under one set of assumptions. I produced this graph because there seems to be a lack of official information on this subject and because the amateur attempts I've seen so far on the web are so obviously wrong.

[Key points: Even with no further immigration and declining Muslim birthrates, by the end of the century Muslims will be 12-14% of the UK population, including around 50,000 jihadists - Ed.]


I make the following claims for the accuracy of my projections:

1) Most of the data I have used comes directly from the 2011 Census. I've sourced the difficult-to-obtain UK Muslim fertility rates from two separate sources which are in complete agreement with each other, and which are consistent with the by-country fertility rates for foreign-born UK women released with the 2011 Census. I've performed Leslie matrix computations on the age-structured data to project populations forwards in time. I've used a 100-year convergence assumption for fertility rates, the same assumption used by the Pew Research Center in its projections.

2) I almost exactly nail the 2050 projection made by the Pew Research Center under similar assumptions. This is a strong indicator that I have no major bugs in my data, my methods, or my code.

Full details of my data, methods, and the fully annotated and referenced code itself are available from the GitHub repository where I have posted the project. This repository is cited on the graph itself as which expands to

I should stress that the projections on the graph make the assumption of zero future immigration and zero future emigration of all peoples. It should be obvious that if future cohorts of immigrants contain more Muslims than the UK population at the time, then the islamification of the UK is likely to be accelerated. If future cohorts are almost entirely non-Muslim then the islamification of the UK may be retarded. The exact no-impact cohort is not simple to specify because of the high birthrate of new Muslim immigrants, and in all cases the make-up of any emigrant cohort must also be taken into account.

As it says both on the graph and in the repository, I have put the graph and the code into the public domain, all rights released. Feel free, therefore, to use the image or the code in any way you see fit, including tweeting the image or displaying it on your website.

And finally, my open-source code repository on GitHub will only last as long as GitHub's staff allow it to. GitHub has a "no discrimination" policy in its user agreement. Even though my code is purely mathematical, I suspect it will only take a handful of complaints from the far Left for my repository to go down the memory hole. Therefore, I have suggested to Liberty GB that they 'mirror' my code on their website. [Here's our download link for the Zip file - Ed.]

Thank you for your time.

Yours Sincerely
Paul Revere Jr *

* Paul Revere Jr is a pseudonym. Paul Revere was an American patriot in the American War of Independence who famously warned his fellow Americans that "The British are coming". I see my role as warning my fellow Britons that "The Muslims are coming", by womb.